Does a team's competitive success within its region relate to how long it survives? Competitiveness here is a team's EPA percentile among the teams in its region that season — not global rank, since regions differ in strength. Buckets: Bottom 10%, Below median, Above median of the region. Applied to one region, the teams currently tripping that bottom-decile signal are listed in the California watch list.
Region-relative standing = a team's rank by EPA among all teams that competed in its region that season (region-years with <15 teams are skipped). Ten balanced regions: Michigan, California, Texas each on their own; Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Midwest, West; Canada; and International (all non-US/Canada).
Survival / lifespan = first→last season played (gap-tolerant), as in the longevity tool. Recent cohorts' survival is provisional. Bottom 10 / Below median / Above median = region percentile <10% / 10–50% / ≥50%.
Honest limits: this is correlation. EPA likely reflects program resources (mentors, funding, student pipeline) as much as it drives survival — the data shows struggling teams are at higher risk and that competitive recovery tracks survival, but cannot show that providing support would cause recovery. New teams skew low (ranked against veterans). 2020 EPA is sparse and 2021 is absent (COVID).
Teams grouped by their local-standing decile over their first four seasons, and the share that reach year 5. The climb is smooth, with a distinct drop at the bottom decile.
The same idea as retention curves: the share of a cohort still active as it ages, split by early local standing. Higher early standing, longer survival — at every age.
The gap holds within every age band — a bottom-decile team is less likely to be around in three years than an above-median team of the same age.
Teams that started in the bottom 10% of their region in year 1, tracked by where they got to in years 2–4. Those that climbed to the top half survive nearly as well as teams that started strong (dashed benchmark). Recent standing matters more than the rookie year.
For teams four or more years in, a bottom-decile season is a real risk marker — but staying stuck longer barely compounds it, and a single down year already carries most of the signal. Teams that climb back out the next season return close to the baseline.
Data: EPA from Statbotics, participation from The Blue Alliance. Presented as supporting material — the figures are shown straight, for you to interpret.